Our wind forecast
In this 4cast we have built in the three-day infos from into our long-term forecast. This makes us unbeatable: the actual conditions from a really good source (which we recomend to all those who are interested in the wind) and the rest with our "GFS" experience-factors results. Who can do better than that?
Since January '11 also:
We will post newest information on our profile whenever we can. And of course everybody can add us as their friend.
We also have a site. Unfortunately we only post updates in German, sorry guys!:
The much more precise forecast from is calculated for the next 69 hours (more wouldn't make sense, as variations are too probable) with a regional model. Apart from the topography of our island, this "WRF" also takes into account atmospheric currents and all the other relevant information. As far as we know, this is the best source, not only for El Médano. These results are even closer to reality than our based-on-experience ones. And those tend to be quite accurate already :-)
To see if these calculation results really correspond to the actual meteorological conditions best thing is to take a look at one of the Webcams in our town. --> pick whichever with a tip to the summing up.
Rudi's anemometer, located at the "Casas de Colores" in the Cabezo bay, is also useful (click at "Weatherstation"). That site doesn't have to be updated constantly, and the data is introduced automatically every five minutes.
Moreover you can check the wind force in Beaufort and speed in knots! After having observed a slight deviation, Markus & Andreas from BERGFEX, the supervisors of the station, adjusted the indicator in the beginning of August '11 :-)
Before you checked out D'Light's anemometer (unfortunately out of order and looking for sponsorship). You also could see the progression of the last seven days (in 20 minute intervals!) on D'Light's site - it's too bad that it doesn't exist anymore ):
It's incredible: we've gotten so used to having the information on our screen that when somebody asks for advice on which sail to take, we always prefer to check the anemometers. It's as if we had forgotten how to make such decesions by looking at the water. Every time the anemometers are out of order we have have problems giving recommendations.
To compare you should take a look at the (very well prepared!) forecast "Superforecast" of the . Espacially for watching at smartphone screens tht team of Oliver König has formatted the informationen very nice. Compliment!
Or the very attractive design of the WINDGURU.. In these since March 2018 Pawel has put the dates from his WRF (with 3 km solution!) at his page, which you had paid for before.
The bomb however is Michael Scheer’s
There he has created the forecasts for a range of surf spots in hourly steps. Tenerife , and our bay, can also be found on there. Really great! Something you should definitely check out if you want to know for sure. Since the beginning of 2011 we have taken over these results in our own forecasts because there simply is nothing better out there.Zur Brauchbarkeit der Langzeit-Rechnungen kann sich jeder selbst seine Gedanken machen. Zur Hilfe hatten wir seit Sommer '06 die Ergebnisse aus dem Global Forecast System (GFS) mit - wenn möglich - täglicher Aktualisierung verfolgt. Doch deren Auswertung wird unsere Sportfreunde noch mehr langweilen als dieser Text hier. Deshalb verzichten wir lieber auf weitere Links.
Michael has also provided us with the automatic reading of the GFS data, so that all our windsurfing enthusiasts can be informed as well as possible. With that he has earned our service free of charge for the next ten years. We have compared the results of his forecasts with the actual wind for those days to see if the “WRF” is as good as our own algorithm. The result: way better! It is simply amazing how precise the calculation models can predict the conditions in the majority of cases. A loud HIP HIP HURRAH for IT! And a big kudos to Michael!
Diese Daten werden also vier mal am Tag automatisch generiert. Für den Fall, dass die nicht aktuell sind, liegt das ausschließlich an einem technischen Problem. Sorry - wir haben uns abhängig gemacht. Aber wir genießen es, dass uns Computer die Arbeit abgenommen haben!
To our two weeks chronic: TIP here!
With this chart we get an idea of how reliable the calculations for the wind forecast are.
If the values vary often we imagine that we wont see much of what is displayed. On the other hand if the calculations start to tend to a definite value we guess that the awaited wind will come.
This comes in handy for the planning of outdoor activities. Otherwise we just have to see what comes when it comes.
In the creation of the forecast website we were helped greatly by Christian Bagemihl. In case anyone has a problem of repetitive work on the PC (like typing in the same keyboard combinations every day), they should get in touch with him! It is simply awesome to save yourself a few minutes of monotonous work per day. The computer can do it much better. It also doesn’t do any mistakes; once you have taught it do to do things correctly. Christian can make it happen: -in Spanish and German!
He has even included the graphic design in the program. That shows just how good he is, right?
Apart from that we can post the success here: since spring 2009 we have the automatic forecast! With the help of our two IT guys we now publish the prediction model results, coupled with our own experience predictions of the Global Forecast System calculations, four times a day on our site. We enjoy getting compared to other forecast sources. It is hard to ignore that we constantly tend to be closer to reality :). As to the usefulness of the long term forecast, we let everyone make up their own mind. Our hard work in the last years ha lead to the result that half of the results have turned into reality. It seems like we can leave it out altogether.
Schlecht zu verstehen da Ganze? OK, OK, vielleicht wird es mit einer (noch ausführlicheren;-) Erklärung besser.